The proposed judicial reform by President Andrés Manuel López Obrador includes major changes to the way ministers, judges, and magistrates are appointed.
Mexico’s Judicial Reform
The proposal involves electing them through popular vote, eliminating certain trusts, and implementing a regulatory system that could sanction ministers of the Supreme Court of Justice of the Nation (SCJN). This reform is set to be discussed and decided upon starting in September.
US Ambassador to Mexico, Ken Salazar, expressed his concerns in an official letter. Salazar emphasized that the direct election of ministers could threaten the functioning of democracy in Mexico.
“Any reform must include safeguards to ensure that the judiciary is strengthened and not subject to political corruption,” Salazar said.
He also highlighted the potential threat to the USMCA (United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement), which involves the three countries.
Salazar warned that the uncertainty in the legal system arising from this reform could undermine investor confidence in Mexico’s legal framework, potentially negatively affecting trade relations between Mexico and the United States.
Similar concerns were voiced by Canadian Ambassador to Mexico, Graeme Clark. Clark revealed that Canadian investors are worried about the stability of their assets in Mexico if the judicial system fails to function effectively.
“Investors in Canada want to ensure there is stability in the legal system when they invest,” Clark said. He added that Canada is the second largest foreign investor in Mexico, with a total investment of CAD 40 billion.
The potential instability caused by the judicial reform could lead investors to be more cautious about directing their funds to Mexico, which could disrupt investment flows and economic relations between the two countries.
This judicial reform also has the potential to create significant impacts on other aspects of governance and society in Mexico.
Some fear that electing judges and judicial officials through popular vote might make it easier for drug cartels and other malicious actors to manipulate the legal system by placing inexperienced or politically motivated judges. This could result in a more vulnerable and corrupt judicial system, further increasing uncertainty for investors.
Recent reports indicate that the Morena-PT-Green Party coalition in the Mexican Chamber of Deputies will have 364 legislators, granting them a two-thirds majority needed for constitutional reforms without requiring negotiations with the opposition.
In the Senate, the coalition will have 83 legislators, slightly short of the majority needed in the Upper House. The uncertainty about how this reform will be implemented and its impact on the legal system and international relations is raising concerns among investors and foreign governments.
The impact of this reform could also affect international trade agreements, including the USMCA, which is a crucial trade pact among Mexico, the United States, and Canada.
Experts suggest that if the reform is implemented without sufficient guarantees for the integrity of the judicial system, it could disrupt economic stability and trade in the region.
Meanwhile, the Mexican government is working to reassure that this reform will strengthen the judicial system and bring improvements in governance.
However, for now, the concerns from the US and Canada highlight the uncertainty that needs to be addressed to ensure that this reform does not harm economic and trade relations internationally.
Against this backdrop of international concern, attention now turns to how this judicial reform will be processed and implemented.
Close scrutiny from various stakeholders, including the international community, will be crucial to ensure that the reform not only meets Mexico’s internal goals but also maintains the stability of trade and investment relations that have been established with partner countries.